This isn't a doubling over six months — it's a doubling in one quarter. Prediction market platform Kalshi just closed a $1 billion Series F at a $22 billion valuation this past May. Three months later, the number on the table has jumped to $40 billion, an 82% increase. Two institutions are willing to sit down at the negotiating table: existing investor Sequoia Capital, and first-time backer Wellington Management, with a combined size of at least $750 million. Both are considering leading the round, and the final amount could climb even higher.
The deal is still in deep negotiations, and no party has announced a final agreement yet.
What's holding up that $40 billion number isn't a story — it's revenue velocity. Kalshi's annualized revenue hit $4 billion in July, up from $2 billion just the month before — a doubling in a single month. The main driver behind that curve is sports contracts, which account for over 80% of the platform's trading volume, with the 2026 World Cup serving as the biggest engine. That tournament alone is expected to bring roughly 3 million new users to Kalshi.
Over the same period, Polymarket's annualized revenue stood at $1.1 billion, which is why Kalshi has been publicly claiming it now captures 95% of U.S. prediction market revenue. The valuation gap between the two platforms lines up with that ratio: Polymarket's recently sought valuation is $20 billion — exactly half of Kalshi's in this round.
CEO Tarek Mansour confirmed back in June that the company is considering an IPO in 2027. If this $40 billion round actually closes, the question left for the market won't be whether Kalshi is worth that price — it'll be how many more quarters this growth rate can hold. But that's a question for later. Right now, this round hasn't even been signed yet.
